Florida Governor Analysis in progress
Neutral race outlook, generated daily from the Catalyst model, public polls and FEC filings.
Most likely result: Byron Donalds (R) wins
Win chance: David Jolly (D) 15.1% · Byron Donalds (R) 84.9% ANALYST
Rating: Likely R ANALYST · Poll average (margin): R+4.7 SOURCED
Money
- No FEC filing — state race; governor candidates report to the state campaign-finance agency
Factors favouring David Jolly (D)
- No clear data edge
Factors favouring Byron Donalds (R)
- Ahead in polls (poll-average margin R+4.7)
What would change the outlook
A sustained poll shift of about 4.7 points toward the Democrat would make this a closer race.
Catalyst v2.2 model, as of 2026-11-02 · state race, not FEC · methodology
Early vote
- Early voters by party registration: R+2.5, vs R+7.2 at the same point in the prior cycle SOURCED
- Projected electorate composition: R+11.6 (preliminary) ANALYST
Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.