Georgia Senate Analysis in progress
Neutral race outlook, generated daily from the Catalyst model, public polls and FEC filings.
Most likely result: Jon Ossoff (D) wins
Win chance: Jon Ossoff (D) 97.5% · Mike Collins (R) 2.5% ANALYST
Rating: Safe D ANALYST · Poll average (margin): D+12.8 SOURCED
Money
- Money: no FEC filing match
Factors favouring Jon Ossoff (D)
- Ahead in polls (poll-average margin D+12.8)
Factors favouring Mike Collins (R)
- No clear data edge
What would change the outlook
A sustained poll shift of about 12.8 points toward the Republican would make this a closer race.
Catalyst v2.2 model, as of 2026-11-02 · FEC data via OpenFEC · methodology
Early vote
- Early voters by primary-vote history: R+3.1, vs R+4.3 at the same point in the prior cycle SOURCED
- Projected electorate composition: D+2.2; early ballots for Ossoff estimated D+7 to D+12 ANALYST
Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.