North Carolina Senate Analysis in progress
Neutral race outlook, generated daily from the Catalyst model, public polls and FEC filings.
Most likely result: Roy Cooper (D) wins
Win chance: Roy Cooper (D) 97.0% · Michael Whatley (R) 3.0% ANALYST
Rating: Safe D ANALYST · Poll average (margin): D+10.8 SOURCED
Money
- Money: no FEC filing match
Factors favouring Roy Cooper (D)
- Ahead in polls (poll-average margin D+10.8)
Factors favouring Michael Whatley (R)
- No clear data edge
What would change the outlook
A sustained poll shift of about 10.8 points toward the Republican would make this a closer race.
Catalyst v2.2 model, as of 2026-11-02 · FEC data via OpenFEC · methodology
Early vote
- Early in-person voters by party registration: 38.3% registered Democrats, 26.4% registered Republicans (D+11.9); same point in 2024: R+1.4; 2022: D+6.8 SOURCED
- Projected electorate composition: D+2 (adjusted D+6); Senate estimate incl. independents: Cooper ~D+12.2 (range D+11 to D+13) ANALYST
Source: G. Elliott Morris, Strength In Numbers, 1 Nov (source), as of 1 Nov 2026. Caveat from the source: party registration and primary history are not vote choice, and Election Day voting usually narrows the early-vote gap. Shown for context only; these figures are not an input to the Catalyst forecast.