"Ohio's 1st District: Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R)"
Greg Landsman (D) vs Eric Conroy (R) · messaging analysis as of 2026-10-28
Landsman leads 5-9 despite a redder map; 4.5x cash edge
Why this race matters
Likely D
decisive seat for control
4 ratings
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-10-30. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
Model refresh (Catalyst v2.2, viz_data.json generated 2026-10-29, ANALYST): Dem win 90.6%, band Likely D, poll margin D+6.1 across 6 polls, tipping share 2.9%. Supersedes any earlier model line below. ANALYST
FEC: Landsman, Greg (H2OH01194): receipts $5.66M, cash on hand $0.50M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.01M / against $1.57M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.11M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Conroy, Eric (H6OH01138): receipts $2.37M, cash on hand $0.29M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.29M / against $0.00M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 2 filings, $0.01M itemized. SOURCED
Redistricting context (SOURCED): Ohio Redistricting Commission's Oct 31, 2025 bipartisan map made OH-1 and OH-9 more Republican; Trump would have won them by 3 and 11 pts in 2024 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio, citing cleveland.com 2025-10-31). NYT rank #7 / +1.6 R seats: not re-verified this pass.
Where it stands
Polls (SOURCED): RedBox Research (D, sponsor A Fight Worth Having), Oct 20–23, 821 LV ±4.3: Landsman 48–39. Quantus Insights, Oct 19–21, 561 LV ±4.4: Landsman 47–42.
Money (SOURCED): FEC as of Sep 30: Landsman raised $5,546,090, cash $1,497,731; Conroy raised $2,208,277, cash $333,444. No AdImpact figure found.
Ratings: DDHQ Likely D (9/25), Cook Likely D (10/16), Sabato Likely D (10/20), Inside Tilt D (6/12, stale).
Debates / early vote: no district debate found; statewide early vote 1,190,464 as of 10/28 (On Point Politics tracker, secondary); no district split.
Risks to the lead
- New map is Trump +3; a Republican wave could close a 5-pt lead.
- Only one nonpartisan poll (Quantus, D+5); RedBox is Dem-sponsored.
- New Warren/Clinton County voters don't know Landsman.
What's working
Cash edge; polls hold despite redrawn map.
Top 5 recommendations
Bank Warren County turnout; don't coast on Likely D ratings.
Push early-vote returns before Nov 3; chase unreturned mail ballots.
Introduce the candidate to voters newly drawn into the district.
Run only claims backed by sourced votes or filings.
Coordinate with Brown/Acton turnout ops in the same counties.
Evidence & sources
Claims table (7 claims) — tap to expand
| # | Claim | Source | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Model 90.6% / Likely D / D+6.1 | forecast-meta/site/viz_data.json | 2026-10-29 | VERIFIED |
| 2 | Polls | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio | fetched 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (secondary) |
| 3 | FEC figures | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio (citing fec.gov) | fetched 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (secondary; FEC API rate-limited) |
| 4 | Map made OH-1/OH-9 redder; Trump +3/+11 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio | fetched 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (secondary) |
| 5 | NYT rank #7, +1.6 R seats | not retrieved | — | UNVERIFIED |
| F-H2OH01194 | Landsman, Greg (H2OH01194): receipts $5.66M, cash on hand $0.50M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.01M / against $1.57M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.11M itemized. | https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH01194/ ; IE: https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/schedules/schedule_e/by_candidate/?candidate_id=H2OH01194&cycle=2026 ; 48h: https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?committee_id=C00800276&form_type=F6 | pulled 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (FEC API) |
| F-H6OH01138 | Conroy, Eric (H6OH01138): receipts $2.37M, cash on hand $0.29M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.29M / against $0.00M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 2 filings, $0.01M itemized. | https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH01138/ ; IE: https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/schedules/schedule_e/by_candidate/?candidate_id=H6OH01138&cycle=2026 ; 48h: https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?committee_id=C00912311&form_type=F6 | pulled 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (FEC API) |
Tally: 4 VERIFIED, 1 UNVERIFIED, 0 CORRECTED.
What changed since 10-27
New report. RedBox (Oct 20–23) poll and latest FEC figures added.
Gaps
Not found: AdImpact, ads and roll calls behind them, campaign homepage quotes, debates, district early vote, NYT map ranking.