"Ohio's 7th District: Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R)"
Brian Poindexter (D) vs Max Miller (R) · messaging analysis as of 2026-10-28
Model Tilt R but Dem-sponsored polls show Poindexter ahead; cash edge
Why this race matters
Toss-up
Catalyst forecast v2.2, as of 2026-10-30. Tipping-point share = share of simulations in which this race supplies the decisive seat. Rater consensus from published ratings. Methodology and sources.
Model refresh (Catalyst v2.2, viz_data.json generated 2026-10-29, ANALYST): Dem win 54.5%, band Toss-up, Brian (H6OH07168): receipts $3.72M, cash on hand $0.79M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.87M / against $1.13M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 11 filings, $0.18M itemized. SOURCED
FEC: Miller, Max (H2OH16051): receipts $3.32M, cash on hand $0.14M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.00M / against $0.37M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.04M itemized. SOURCED
Redistricting context (SOURCED): Ohio Redistricting Commission's Oct 31, 2025 bipartisan map made OH-1 and OH-9 more Republican; Trump would have won them by 3 and 11 pts in 2024 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio, citing cleveland.com 2025-10-31). NYT rank #7 / +1.6 R seats: not re-verified this pass.
Where it stands
Polls (SOURCED): RedBox Research (D), Oct 20–23, LV ±4.1: Poindexter 46–42. Bedrock Polling (D), Aug 7–10 (older).
Money (SOURCED): FEC as of Oct 14: Poindexter raised $3,720,342, cash $793,675; Miller raised $3,324,942, cash $135,629. No AdImpact figure found.
Ratings: Not retrieved this pass.
Debates / early vote: no district debate found; statewide early vote 1,190,464 as of 10/28 (On Point Politics tracker, secondary); no district split.
Risks to the lead
- All polling is Democratic-sponsored; model gives Poindexter 42%.
- Miller incumbency and GOP-leaning district fundamentals.
- No independent rating retrieved to confirm movement.
What's working
5.9x cash-on-hand edge in the final week.
Top 5 recommendations
Spend the cash edge on late persuasion mail and TV.
Push early-vote returns before Nov 3; chase unreturned mail ballots.
Introduce the candidate to voters newly drawn into the district.
Run only claims backed by sourced votes or filings.
Coordinate with Brown/Acton turnout ops in the same counties.
Evidence & sources
Claims table (7 claims) — tap to expand
| # | Claim | Source | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Model 41.9% / Tilt R | forecast-meta/site/viz_data.json | 2026-10-29 | VERIFIED |
| 2 | Polls | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio | fetched 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (secondary) |
| 3 | FEC figures | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio (citing fec.gov) | fetched 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (secondary; FEC API rate-limited) |
| 4 | Map made OH-1/OH-9 redder; Trump +3/+11 | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio | fetched 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (secondary) |
| 5 | NYT rank #7, +1.6 R seats | not retrieved | — | UNVERIFIED |
| F-H6OH07168 | Poindexter, Brian (H6OH07168): receipts $3.72M, cash on hand $0.79M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.87M / against $1.13M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 11 filings, $0.18M itemized. | https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H6OH07168/ ; IE: https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/schedules/schedule_e/by_candidate/?candidate_id=H6OH07168&cycle=2026 ; 48h: https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?committee_id=C00933366&form_type=F6 | pulled 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (FEC API) |
| F-H2OH16051 | Miller, Max (H2OH16051): receipts $3.32M, cash on hand $0.14M (through 2026-10-14); outside spending for $0.00M / against $0.37M. 48-hour notices since 10/15: 5 filings, $0.04M itemized. | https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2OH16051/ ; IE: https://api.open.fec.gov/v1/schedules/schedule_e/by_candidate/?candidate_id=H2OH16051&cycle=2026 ; 48h: https://www.fec.gov/data/filings/?committee_id=C00770818&form_type=F6 | pulled 2026-10-28 | VERIFIED (FEC API) |
Tally: 4 VERIFIED, 1 UNVERIFIED, 0 CORRECTED.
What changed since 10-27
New report. RedBox (Oct 20–23) poll and latest FEC figures added.
Gaps
Not found: AdImpact, ads and roll calls behind them, campaign homepage quotes, debates, district early vote, NYT map ranking.