{
 "as_of": "2026-10-28",
 "sources": {
  "nyt": {
   "name": "The New York Times (Washington, Cohn & Taylor), \u201cAn Extremely Detailed Ranking of the Most Gerrymandered States in America\u201d, Oct. 26 2026",
   "url": "https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2026/10/26/upshot/gerrymandering-ranking.html",
   "as_of": "2026-10-26",
   "short": "New York Times"
  },
  "wiki": {
   "name": "Wikipedia, \u201c2025\u20132026 United States redistricting\u201d (tracker compiling official actions and court rulings)",
   "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025%E2%80%932026_United_States_redistricting",
   "as_of": "2026-10-28",
   "short": "Wikipedia tracker"
  },
  "wiki2024": {
   "name": "Wikipedia, \u201c2024 United States House of Representatives elections\u201d (certified results)",
   "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections",
   "as_of": "2026-10-28",
   "short": "Wikipedia (2024 results)"
  },
  "downballot": {
   "name": "The Downballot, \u201cHow the midterms will determine the next phase of the redistricting wars\u201d",
   "url": "https://www.the-downballot.com/p/how-the-midterms-will-determine-the",
   "as_of": "2026-10-28",
   "short": "The Downballot"
  },
  "kondik": {
   "name": "Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball (Kyle Kondik), \u201cThe 2026 House Map is No More Favorable to Republicans than the 2018 Map was\u201d",
   "url": "https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/the-2026-house-map-versus-2018/",
   "as_of": "2026-07-30",
   "short": "Sabato\u2019s Crystal Ball"
  },
  "callais": {
   "name": "Louisiana v. Callais, No. 24-109 (U.S. Apr. 29 2026); CRS Legal Sidebar LSB11431",
   "url": "https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/LSB11431",
   "as_of": "2026-05-14",
   "short": "Louisiana v. Callais / CRS"
  },
  "prop50": {
   "name": "Wikipedia, \u201c2025 California Proposition 50\u201d",
   "url": "https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_California_Proposition_50",
   "as_of": "2026-10-28",
   "short": "Wikipedia (Prop 50)"
  },
  "nbc": {
   "name": "NBC News, \u201cHow Democrats could win the House, how Republicans could hold on\u201d",
   "url": "https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/house-majority-math-democrats-win-republicans-scenarios-rcna604404",
   "as_of": "2026-10-25",
   "short": "NBC News"
  }
 },
 "redraws": [
  {
   "st": "TX",
   "name": "Texas",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Mid-decade legislative redraw at the President\u2019s urging (PLANC2333)",
   "legal": "Federal panel blocked it Nov. 18 2025; Supreme Court stayed that 6\u20133 on Dec. 4 2025. Map in use.",
   "old_r": 25,
   "old_d": 13,
   "design_shift": 5,
   "targets": "5 Democratic-held seats (Houston, Dallas, South Texas)"
  },
  {
   "st": "CA",
   "name": "California",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Democratic legislature, ratified by voters",
   "method": "Prop 50 (64.4%\u201335.6%, Nov. 4 2025) temporarily replaced the commission map through 2030",
   "legal": "In use.",
   "old_r": 9,
   "old_d": 43,
   "design_shift": -5,
   "targets": "5 Republican-held seats"
  },
  {
   "st": "MO",
   "name": "Missouri",
   "status_2026": "blocked",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Mid-decade redraw (Sept. 28 2025) splitting Kansas City\u2019s 5th district",
   "legal": "Blocked for 2026 by the Missouri Supreme Court; referendum (Prop A) on the November 2026 ballot decides 2028.",
   "old_r": 6,
   "old_d": 2,
   "design_shift": 1,
   "targets": "MO-5 (Cleaver)"
  },
  {
   "st": "NC",
   "name": "North Carolina",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature (no governor veto over maps)",
   "method": "Mid-decade redraw (Oct. 22 2025)",
   "legal": "In use.",
   "old_r": 10,
   "old_d": 4,
   "design_shift": 1,
   "targets": "NC-1 (Davis)"
  },
  {
   "st": "OH",
   "name": "Ohio",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Ohio Redistricting Commission (bipartisan vote)",
   "method": "Required re-draw under the 2018 amendment; commission adopted a compromise map Oct. 31 2025",
   "legal": "In use.",
   "old_r": 10,
   "old_d": 5,
   "design_shift": 2,
   "targets": "OH-1 and OH-9"
  },
  {
   "st": "UT",
   "name": "Utah",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "State district court",
   "method": "Court imposed a plaintiffs\u2019 map after striking the legislature\u2019s map under Prop 4 (Nov. 10 2025)",
   "legal": "In use; a ballot effort to repeal Prop 4 failed (Mar. 2026).",
   "old_r": 4,
   "old_d": 0,
   "design_shift": -1,
   "targets": "Creates one Salt Lake\u2013based Democratic-leaning seat"
  },
  {
   "st": "VA",
   "name": "Virginia",
   "status_2026": "blocked",
   "drawer": "Democratic legislature, via constitutional amendment",
   "method": "Amendment approved by voters 51.6%\u201348.4% (Apr. 21 2026) to allow a 10\u20131 map",
   "legal": "Voided 4\u20133 by the Virginia Supreme Court (May 8 2026); U.S. Supreme Court denied a stay. 2022 court map stays.",
   "old_r": 5,
   "old_d": 6,
   "design_shift": -4,
   "targets": "4 Republican-held seats"
  },
  {
   "st": "FL",
   "name": "Florida",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature and governor",
   "method": "Mid-decade redraw (May 4 2026)",
   "legal": "In use.",
   "old_r": 20,
   "old_d": 8,
   "design_shift": 4,
   "targets": "4 Democratic-held seats"
  },
  {
   "st": "TN",
   "name": "Tennessee",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Post-Callais redraw (May 7 2026) splitting Memphis",
   "legal": "In use.",
   "old_r": 8,
   "old_d": 1,
   "design_shift": 1,
   "targets": "TN-9 (Cohen), a Black-majority Memphis seat"
  },
  {
   "st": "LA",
   "name": "Louisiana",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Redraw after Callais (May 29 2026) dismantling the second Black-majority district",
   "legal": "In use.",
   "old_r": 4,
   "old_d": 2,
   "design_shift": 1,
   "targets": "LA-6"
  },
  {
   "st": "AL",
   "name": "Alabama",
   "status_2026": "in_effect",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Redraw (June 2 2026) after the post-Milligan injunction was lifted following Callais",
   "legal": "In use.",
   "old_r": 5,
   "old_d": 2,
   "design_shift": 1,
   "targets": "AL-2, a court-ordered Black-opportunity seat"
  },
  {
   "st": "IN",
   "name": "Indiana",
   "status_2026": "failed",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Proposed redraw",
   "legal": "Rejected by the state Senate Dec. 11 2025 (21 Republicans joined 10 Democrats).",
   "old_r": 7,
   "old_d": 2,
   "design_shift": 0,
   "targets": "\u2014"
  },
  {
   "st": "MD",
   "name": "Maryland",
   "status_2026": "failed",
   "drawer": "Democratic legislature",
   "method": "House-passed redraw",
   "legal": "Blocked by the state Senate leadership.",
   "old_r": 1,
   "old_d": 7,
   "design_shift": 0,
   "targets": "MD-1 (would have been)"
  },
  {
   "st": "KS",
   "name": "Kansas",
   "status_2026": "failed",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Proposed redraw targeting KS-3",
   "legal": "Stalled (governor\u2019s veto could not be overridden in time).",
   "old_r": 3,
   "old_d": 1,
   "design_shift": 0,
   "targets": "\u2014"
  },
  {
   "st": "SC",
   "name": "South Carolina",
   "status_2026": "failed",
   "drawer": "Republican legislature",
   "method": "Proposed post-Callais redraw",
   "legal": "Failed in the state Senate.",
   "old_r": 6,
   "old_d": 1,
   "design_shift": 0,
   "targets": "\u2014"
  }
 ],
 "effects": {
  "competitive_dissolved": {
   "value": 13,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "wiki",
   "note": "Net competitive districts (decided by under 10 points in 2024) eliminated by the 2025\u201326 redraws."
  },
  "trump_districts_old": {
   "value": "230\u2013205",
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "Districts Trump carried in 2024 under the 2024 lines."
  },
  "trump_districts_new": {
   "value": "234\u2013201",
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "Districts Trump would have carried under the lines in force for 2026."
  },
  "median_old": {
   "value": 3.1,
   "district": "AZ-1",
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "Trump margin in the median district, 2024 lines."
  },
  "median_new": {
   "value": 4.5,
   "district": "WI-1",
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "Trump margin in the median district, 2026 lines."
  },
  "median_new_kondik": {
   "value": 4.9,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "kondik",
   "note": "Kondik\u2019s figure for the 2026 median district (July 2026, before some final changes)."
  },
  "national_2024": {
   "value": 1.5,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "nbc",
   "note": "Trump\u2019s 2024 national popular-vote margin."
  },
  "share_r_intent": {
   "value": 44,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "Share of all House districts in states whose map was drawn to favor Republicans."
  },
  "share_d_intent": {
   "value": 26,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "Share in states whose map was drawn to favor Democrats."
  },
  "dem_redraw_states_2028": {
   "value": 12,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "States where Democrats could redraw before 2028 (depending on Nov. 3 results)."
  },
  "gop_redraw_states_2028": {
   "value": 16,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "note": "States where Republicans control the process and could redraw for 2028."
  },
  "vra_seats_dismantled": {
   "value": 3,
   "label": "ANALYST",
   "src": "wiki",
   "note": "Black-majority or court-ordered Black-opportunity districts dismantled after Callais (TN-9, LA-6, AL-2), counted from the tracker; NC-1 (about 40% Black) also targeted."
  }
 },
 "dem_capacity": [
  {
   "st": "VA",
   "seats_lo": 4,
   "seats_hi": 4,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "wiki",
   "constraint": "Needs a new constitutional amendment that survives the state Supreme Court; earlier one voided.",
   "window": "2028 at earliest"
  },
  {
   "st": "CA",
   "seats_lo": 1,
   "seats_hi": 4,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "constraint": "A second ballot amendment in 2027; 4 GOP seats remain.",
   "window": "2028"
  },
  {
   "st": "AZ",
   "seats_lo": 3,
   "seats_hi": 3,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "constraint": "Independent commission. Needs a Democratic trifecta plus a voter-approved override in a Trump+5 state; leaders call it a long shot.",
   "window": "2028"
  },
  {
   "st": "CO",
   "seats_lo": 3,
   "seats_hi": 3,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "downballot",
   "constraint": "Independent commission. State Supreme Court disqualified 2026 initiatives; a 2028 referred amendment could allow a 2030 map.",
   "window": "2030"
  },
  {
   "st": "NJ",
   "seats_lo": 2,
   "seats_hi": 3,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "wiki",
   "constraint": "Bipartisan commission with a tie-breaker; needs an amendment.",
   "window": "2028"
  },
  {
   "st": "MD",
   "seats_lo": 1,
   "seats_hi": 1,
   "label": "SOURCED",
   "src": "wiki",
   "constraint": "Legislature can act; the Senate president blocked it in 2026.",
   "window": "2028"
  },
  {
   "st": "NY",
   "seats_lo": null,
   "seats_hi": null,
   "label": "GAP",
   "src": "wiki",
   "constraint": "Commission plus a constitutional amendment (two legislatures and voters). No sourced seat estimate yet.",
   "window": "2028\u20132030"
  },
  {
   "st": "WA",
   "seats_lo": null,
   "seats_hi": null,
   "label": "GAP",
   "src": "wiki",
   "constraint": "Commission; a \u2018trigger\u2019 amendment has been proposed. No sourced seat estimate.",
   "window": "2030"
  },
  {
   "st": "IL",
   "seats_lo": null,
   "seats_hi": null,
   "label": "GAP",
   "src": "nyt",
   "constraint": "Already rated +2.2 D seats by the NYT; extra headroom not sourced.",
   "window": "2028"
  }
 ],
 "derived": {
  "nyt_sum": {
   "r": 18.6,
   "d": 11.2,
   "net_r": 7.4,
   "label": "ANALYST",
   "method": "Sum of the NYT's per-state 'seats gained' figures; the NYT does not publish this total."
  },
  "design_net": {
   "r": 15,
   "d": 6,
   "label": "ANALYST",
   "method": "Sum of each in-effect new map's designed seat shift (Wikipedia redistricting tracker, 2026-10-28). Blocked maps (MO, VA) excluded.",
   "net_r": 9
  }
 },
 "nyt_ranking": [
  {
   "rank": 1,
   "st": "TX",
   "name": "Texas",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 6.0,
    "aggr": 73,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2025
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 2,
   "st": "CA",
   "name": "California",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 5.0,
    "aggr": 73,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2025
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 3,
   "st": "FL",
   "name": "Florida",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 3.8,
    "aggr": 76,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2026
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 4,
   "st": "NC",
   "name": "North Carolina",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 2.4,
    "aggr": 88,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2025
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 5,
   "st": "TN",
   "name": "Tennessee",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 1.8,
    "aggr": 99,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2026
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 6,
   "st": "IL",
   "name": "Illinois",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 2.2,
    "aggr": 71,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 7,
   "st": "OH",
   "name": "Ohio",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 1.6,
    "aggr": 67,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2025
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 8,
   "st": "GA",
   "name": "Georgia",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 1.0,
    "aggr": 52,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2023
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 9,
   "st": "OR",
   "name": "Oregon",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.7,
    "aggr": 65,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 10,
   "st": "IA",
   "name": "Iowa",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.5,
    "aggr": 71,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 11,
   "st": "NM",
   "name": "New Mexico",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.3,
    "aggr": 72,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 12,
   "st": "AZ",
   "name": "Arizona",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.4,
    "aggr": 40,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 13,
   "st": "KS",
   "name": "Kansas",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.3,
    "aggr": 54,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 14,
   "st": "NJ",
   "name": "New Jersey",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.3,
    "aggr": 37,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 15,
   "st": "SC",
   "name": "South Carolina",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.3,
    "aggr": 46,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 16,
   "st": "MD",
   "name": "Maryland",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.3,
    "aggr": 43,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 17,
   "st": "CO",
   "name": "Colorado",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.3,
    "aggr": 34,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 18,
   "st": "AR",
   "name": "Arkansas",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 67,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 19,
   "st": "MA",
   "name": "Massachusetts",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 64,
    "tag": "Fine",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 20,
   "st": "NV",
   "name": "Nevada",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 70,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 21,
   "st": "ME",
   "name": "Maine",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 45,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 22,
   "st": "PA",
   "name": "Pennsylvania",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 61,
    "tag": "Balanced",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 23,
   "st": "NY",
   "name": "New York",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.3,
    "aggr": 24,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2024
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 24,
   "st": "MI",
   "name": "Michigan",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 44,
    "tag": "Balanced",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 25,
   "st": "UT",
   "name": "Utah",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.2,
    "aggr": 26,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2025
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 26,
   "st": "VA",
   "name": "Virginia",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 30,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 27,
   "st": "CT",
   "name": "Connecticut",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 29,
    "tag": "Fine",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 28,
   "st": "WA",
   "name": "Washington",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 17,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 29,
   "st": "MN",
   "name": "Minnesota",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 12,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 30,
   "st": "NE",
   "name": "Nebraska",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 14,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 31,
   "st": "IN",
   "name": "Indiana",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "R",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 8,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 32,
   "st": "MT",
   "name": "Montana",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 14,
    "tag": "Fine",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 33,
   "st": "NH",
   "name": "New Hampshire",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 13,
    "tag": "Fine",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 34,
   "st": "MO",
   "name": "Missouri",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 1,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 35,
   "st": "HI",
   "name": "Hawaii",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 3,
    "tag": "Fine",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 36,
   "st": "MS",
   "name": "Mississippi",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.5,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 37,
   "st": "AL",
   "name": "Alabama",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.4,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2023
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 38,
   "st": "WI",
   "name": "Wisconsin",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "Fine",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 39,
   "st": "LA",
   "name": "Louisiana",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "D",
    "seats": 0.1,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "Watching",
    "drawn": 2026
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 40,
   "st": "RI",
   "name": "Rhode Island",
   "drawn_by": "D",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "Fine",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 41,
   "st": "KY",
   "name": "Kentucky",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2022
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 42,
   "st": "OK",
   "name": "Oklahoma",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 43,
   "st": "ID",
   "name": "Idaho",
   "drawn_by": "Other",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  },
  {
   "rank": 44,
   "st": "WV",
   "name": "West Virginia",
   "drawn_by": "R",
   "nyt": {
    "party": "",
    "seats": 0.0,
    "aggr": 0,
    "tag": "",
    "drawn": 2021
   }
  }
 ],
 "forecast": {
  "label": "ANALYST",
  "as_of": "2026-10-28",
  "source": "Catalyst House forecast",
  "source_url": "../forecast/",
  "p_control": 0.87458,
  "median_dem_seats": 227,
  "races": {
   "FL-07": {
    "p_dem": 0.117,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "FL-09": {
    "p_dem": 0.127,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "FL-14": {
    "p_dem": 0.603,
    "band": "Tilt D"
   },
   "FL-22": {
    "p_dem": 0.41,
    "band": "Tilt R"
   },
   "FL-25": {
    "p_dem": 0.701,
    "band": "Lean D"
   },
   "NC-01": {
    "p_dem": 0.73,
    "band": "Lean D"
   },
   "NC-11": {
    "p_dem": 0.677,
    "band": "Lean D"
   },
   "OH-07": {
    "p_dem": 0.419,
    "band": "Tilt R"
   },
   "OH-09": {
    "p_dem": 0.628,
    "band": "Tilt D"
   },
   "SC-01": {
    "p_dem": 0.188,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "TX-15": {
    "p_dem": 0.465,
    "band": "Toss-up"
   },
   "TX-34": {
    "p_dem": 0.785,
    "band": "Lean D"
   },
   "TX-35": {
    "p_dem": 0.421,
    "band": "Tilt R"
   },
   "VA-01": {
    "p_dem": 0.369,
    "band": "Tilt R"
   },
   "CA-13": {
    "p_dem": 0.916,
    "band": "Likely D"
   },
   "CA-45": {
    "p_dem": 0.947,
    "band": "Safe D"
   },
   "IN-01": {
    "p_dem": 0.942,
    "band": "Safe D"
   },
   "OH-01": {
    "p_dem": 0.912,
    "band": "Likely D"
   },
   "OH-13": {
    "p_dem": 0.918,
    "band": "Likely D"
   },
   "TX-28": {
    "p_dem": 0.88,
    "band": "Likely D"
   },
   "VA-07": {
    "p_dem": 0.944,
    "band": "Safe D"
   },
   "CA-48": {
    "p_dem": 0.89,
    "band": "Likely D"
   },
   "VA-02": {
    "p_dem": 0.774,
    "band": "Lean D"
   },
   "CA-22": {
    "p_dem": 0.751,
    "band": "Lean D"
   },
   "AL-02": {
    "p_dem": 0.213,
    "band": "Lean R"
   },
   "FL-13": {
    "p_dem": 0.094,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "FL-27": {
    "p_dem": 0.124,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "OH-10": {
    "p_dem": 0.091,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "OH-15": {
    "p_dem": 0.095,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "TX-23": {
    "p_dem": 0.142,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "FL-16": {
    "p_dem": 0.079,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "IN-05": {
    "p_dem": 0.082,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "KS-02": {
    "p_dem": 0.056,
    "band": "Safe R"
   },
   "MO-02": {
    "p_dem": 0.136,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "NC-03": {
    "p_dem": 0.073,
    "band": "Safe R"
   },
   "NC-13": {
    "p_dem": 0.07,
    "band": "Safe R"
   },
   "TX-09": {
    "p_dem": 0.067,
    "band": "Safe R"
   },
   "VA-05": {
    "p_dem": 0.104,
    "band": "Likely R"
   },
   "CA-06": {
    "p_dem": 0.927,
    "band": "Safe D"
   },
   "FL-12": {
    "p_dem": 0.061,
    "band": "Safe R"
   },
   "MD-01": {
    "p_dem": 0.046,
    "band": "Safe R"
   },
   "CA-21": {
    "p_dem": 0.955,
    "band": "Safe D"
   }
  }
 },
 "geo": {
  "TX_old": {
   "label": "2024 map (used 2022\u201324)",
   "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, cartographic boundary file cb_2024_us_cd119_500k",
   "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip",
   "n": 38
  },
  "TX_new": {
   "label": "2026 map (PLANC2333)",
   "source": "Texas Legislative Council, Capitol Data Portal, PLANC2333 shapefile",
   "url": "https://data.capitol.texas.gov/dataset/planc2333",
   "n": 38
  },
  "CA_old": {
   "label": "2024 map (commission)",
   "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k",
   "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip",
   "n": 52
  },
  "CA_new": {
   "label": "2026 map (Prop 50 / AB 604)",
   "source": "California Assembly Elections Committee, AB 604 congressional map shapefile",
   "url": "https://aelc.assembly.ca.gov/proposed-congressional-map",
   "n": 52
  },
  "NC_old": {
   "label": "2024 map",
   "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k",
   "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip",
   "n": 14
  },
  "NC_new": {
   "label": "2026 map (S.L. 2025-95)",
   "source": "North Carolina General Assembly, S.L. 2025-95 shapefile",
   "url": "https://www.ncleg.gov/Redistricting",
   "n": 14
  },
  "OH_old": {
   "label": "2024 map",
   "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k",
   "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip",
   "n": 15
  },
  "OH_new": {
   "label": "2026 map (Commission, Oct. 31 2025)",
   "source": "Ohio Redistricting Commission block-assignment file, dissolved over Census 2020 TIGER blocks",
   "url": "https://redistricting.ohio.gov/maps",
   "n": 15
  },
  "MO_old": {
   "label": "Map in use for 2026 (2022 map)",
   "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k",
   "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip",
   "n": 8
  },
  "UT_old": {
   "label": "2024 map (legislature)",
   "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k",
   "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip",
   "n": 4
  },
  "FL_old": {
   "label": "2024 map",
   "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, cb_2024_us_cd119_500k",
   "url": "https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2024/shp/cb_2024_us_cd119_500k.zip",
   "n": 28
  }
 }
}